Stubbing the Stubble in North India
Saroja.Earth's Five-Canvas Plan of Action to Improve Air Quality through Stubble Burning Reduction
Over the next few months, Delhi will hit another season of poor air quality. Stubble burning will be one of the chief pollutants in the toxic few weeks that make Delhi into a gas chamber. The poor Punjabi farmer will be thrown under yet another bus even as Chlorine-derivates and industrial boilers escape unnoticed. More upper-income Delhiites will buy properties in Goa and look the other way as they quote history and use effective altruism explanations to not fix problems they see everyday. More children in North India will become prone to respiratory diseases and have lower life spans. A million people will die again this year due to ambient air pollution and no one will notice.
Not again.
As a fan of Sisyphus and Heracles, I believe it is better to be interventionists in history than spectators of civilizational collapse. I believe it is better to prescribe the world we want to see with mistakes along the way than describe the imperfections we see with accuracy. Our team has published its open source theory of change. We have also identified five canvases of intervention and action to make things better and turn this problem into an opportunity. And no better day to get started with implementation than Gandhi Jayanti, India's favourite birth anniversary and idea co-option festival.
We will improve air quality in North India over the next decade. We will start with stubble burning reduction in Punjab. But the lifelong hope is to reduce pollution of all the elements and sources in all geographies. P(1), P(n) and P(n+1) lie ahead.
First, academia.
What you can't measure you can't solve. What you don't study you don't know. There is no sound open and accessible scientific statistical system on air quality across North India that measures with granularity at regular intervals. Pollution varies by location, month and time. Source apportionment hasn’t been continuous or rigorous. This is criminal when most air pollution deaths are attributable to ambient air quality as per Lancet 2019. Hyperlocal insights have shown that air pollution varies as much as eight times within a neighborhood block subjecting some individuals to >40% higher risk of heart disease as per Nature 2020. Such information is lacking publicly or with granularity. Data exists behind silos and closed doors with little to no interoperability, investment in knowledge creation is sparse, communication and dialogue between researchers and their sensors is virtually non-existent and source apportionment is caught between bureaucratic malaise and equipment procurement.
A community of researchers working on this problem from the perspective of chemical, environmental and health effects is needed. Young faculty and researchers at IIT Delhi, IIIT Delhi, Plaksha University, Punjab Agricultural University, IIT Bombay, IIM Bangalore, CSIR NEERI/NIIST/CRRI and IISc can help us understand the problem in an inclusive multi-faceted and scientific manner that can be cost-effective. Renowned and respected technocrats from CSIRs, ICAR, IARI, ISRO, IISER and MeITY if mainstreamed into government action can make Delhi breathe easy. A sound and robust system of sensors measuring different pollutants with varying degrees of specificity, accuracy and precision interspersed with satellite data can help us measure, monitor and abate stubble burning and air pollution. Public management, operation and maintenance of such a data system and research ecosystem is important for the pursuit of truth not to be hampered by institutional decay.
Learning from Taiwan, London, Mexico City and New York would be prudent for any megapolis looking to reduce air pollution. Such a robust system of data and analysts will help measure the impact of actions, and scale them suitably with scientific validity. For example, it might prove once and for all, that road washing is more prudent than mechanized sweeping or that chlorides from waste-to-energy and steel plants complicate Delhi’s air pollution or that boiler rooms in industrial Punjab or Haryana need more regulation than the average farmer. Similar to how Israel utilized its water scarcity problem to become the world leader in water and sewerage technology, Delhi, Punjab and Haryana have a unique opportunity to be the world’s leader in knowledge and industry creation around clean air and waste to value pathways.
There are also open science questions for me that remain unaddressed on what type of activity causes what percentage of emissions and pollution in what geography and if the reasons are construction, crop burning, industries, vehicles or human acts and activities. Figuring the impact of Pakistan, Bangladesh, Himalayas, Westerlies and city air flow design affecting our air quality will help establish a reasonable lower-bound for citizen expectation and government policy. There are some good technology and engineering questions too that are open as well. For example, the use of multi-modal multi-method multi-scalar data systems for spatial, remote and social sensing of air quality at the cheapest cost to make measurement affordable for the citizen and public sector is an open question. The cost-benefit analysis of interventions like artificial rain seeding, open space wind purification devices and PUSA decomposer haven't been tested for cost-effectiveness or mitigation effectiveness. The ideas of Patrick Collison, Tyler Cowen, Benjamin Reinhardt and Michael Nielsen that combine Progress Studies, PARPA around air quality a la DARPA and Opening Science up through collaborative efforts like the Polymath project are needed, now more than ever, for North Indian air quality.
Second, the state.
As the most powerful actor in Indian society, the government, courts and the bureaucracy have access to the biggest lever of change via persuasion, regulation, coercion and action respectively. Lack of public buy-in, absence of political will, fragmented bureaucratic actions organized by department instead of outcome and lack of coordination between lawyers and judges with scientists and businesses have caused great public harm. The solution lies in dialogue instead of monologue and relies on razors based on Occam instead of Hanlon.
The Supreme Court, National Green Tribunal and High Courts must become much more scientific and practical at the same time. In an age where the judiciary is known for executive action, especially during Covid where it relied on businesses especially in the healthcare and pharmaceutical sector as well as renowned academics directly, it is important that they consult scientists and businesses on air quality instead of just activists and bureaucrats to solve this crisis created by misaligned incentives to create concrete and implementable plans instead of angry rants or cost-ineffective solutions.
Governments must find a way to implement multi-pronged solutions in an outcome-oriented manner to treat the cause instead of proximal symptoms. For example, legislative instruments aimed at water conservation in Punjab and Haryana gave the government the power to define a precise date of the year, prior to which farmers are prohibited from transplanting paddy from the nursery since 2009. While reducing the depletion of groundwater, it has reduced the number of days available between the kharif and rabi crops, and created incentives to burn the stubble in order to rapidly clear the field. Each year over the last 16 years, the agrarian crisis gets worse in some way or the other with bad politics leading to poor fertilizers, failing crops and falling incomes which is further exacerbated by free electricity given to farmers that runs pumps down in many places.
Creating ponds, rejuvenating lakes and cleaning tip rivers along with laying down a second line to implement energy welfare schemes and reduce rationalize water pumping through village level incentives along with a directional focus on crop diversification will create the political economy and a sustainable market that supports the repeal of such laws and their provisions. Innovation in the electricity sector along the lines of Gujarat which had a second line for agricultural pumps with mandated few hours running with punitive damages for running it over that has not been done but instead free electricity has been continued throughout.
Good startups and companies and industries in the space haven't been co-opted strategically or sometimes haven't been given scale. Political will or assurance that state will not be an obstacle or enemy in the process of doing the right thing is not clear. There are high-level issues of financing which I believe richer states and cities will need to do for poorer states and cities. Some form of assistance from Delhi Government and the GoI could be given to SMART actions that should be measured as KPIs in states like Haryana and Punjab. KPIs on the Finance Commission grants to states or pollution cess levied due to SC judgments goes into pointless white elephant projects which look good as glitzy cool tech but don't solve the problem. Smog towers are presented as solutions by the media when actually better revised farming practices, urban tree plantation drives and maintenance of cities and villages through watering should be the heroes.
Bureaucrats must utilize methods to implement existing central government mandates and copy best practices from different states and districts in their state and the country to improve the situation. Pathankot curbed stubble burning through incentives and collaborative work with dairy farmers and industrial boiler operators, Faridkot has the Kheti Virasat Mission working on farmer communication and education while Chhattisgarh’s Gauthans have improved farmer incomes and reduced stubble burning and the scope exists to implement methods mandates that utilize biomass for power plants instead of coal like in Mansa and Samana. When air pollution season hits, everyone goes nutty and helter skelter, the Courts and the NGT keep passing one order after another which have no connection to the realistic capacity or competence of state governments. They give orders for action to Departments, bureaucrats and departments get stuck doing compliance on some judicially framed executive plan and politicians pick the best Facebook video they've seen to look like they're doing something. Water body rejuvenation from water sources department in every village and panchayat is also needed if water table needs to be fixed and case for removal of the water conservation laws needs to be made. Any air pollution plan that doesn't include a plan for water, soil and energy is missing the forest for a tree. SYL canal also needs to get solved for the broader agrarian and riparian issue at the regional level to get solved but that's a rant for another time and place.
Third, the market.
If government action and the political economy become progressive and citizen-centric, the market that includes startups, business and industry must innovate collaboratively with the state to study, fix and implement solutions that solve problems linked to unit economics and supply chain/logistics, and take ownership to public problem solving through private value creation. Translating the needs of a government, wants of civil society organizations and desires of individuals is something that the private sector can do best. Venture capital in deep technology can help create a network of researchers that work on the open science and technology problems related to air quality monitoring and abatement. Israel looks its water crisis to ensure that each drop is used twice and create an industry around water technology and innovation. There is no reason why Punjab, Haryana and Delhi can’t create a Bell Labs equivalent for sustainability and air quality. The private sector can help the Government of India and the citizens of India bolster incomes and stop India’s export of water by moving farmers from paddy to millets, and more importantly consumers and citizens too, to generate the demand. Some other solutions which need evaluation and deployment if useful scalably are Happy Seeder, Super Seeder, Zero Drill, Rice Straw Baler, Direct Seed Rice Cultivation, PUSA bio decomposer, Compost Turner, Soil incorporation, Organic Farming, Millet Farming, Cotton Cultivation, Mushroom cultivation, Wheat Cultivation in Paddy Straw and Paddy Straw for Mulching. Market-ready fuels, high-margin products or materials and industrial solutions already have an uptake which will increase with time. Creating ecosystems and industries will again be critical. For example, we need an industry indexed around Sodium not Lithium to ensure that food security, health security, energy security and national security align in consonance.
Fourth, the civil society.
Agriculture residue is burnt across the world in every country in every context. Air has been polluted in a host of megacities and cities have gotten out of this problem. Both these issues are not novel problems or insurmountable ones. However, it requires a burgeoning and innovative non-profit sector to help in public problem solving. Most non-profits have followed the lead of governments (who have an incentive to lie or brush aside air quality issues) or found working with bureaucracy to implement public problems, or worked on conducting IEC activities unlinked to incentive/disincentive. This has been unstrategic and uncoordinated. Non-profits must find ways to index on science, technology and grassroots action instead of management, governance and policy action to solve a problem which is complex and multi-sectoral. I personally think non-profits that help study wind and meteorology, hold industries accountable instead of lobbying for them, conduct monitoring and evaluation of government data and plans, conducts cost benefit effectiveness research for abatement solutions, helps foster research ecosystems through strategic granting in public and private universities, helps provide untied funds for open-source research and action are better bets than the current focus on communication, advocacy and large overheads of rent and salaries.
Non-profits that help villages take advantage of central schemes, conduct social drives in urban areas to distribute warm clothing and heaters for the homeless and those working in the open do more for the air quality of the region than a wannabe thinktank with a fancy office address. Research grants towards home composting technologies and making low cost air purifiers through challenge prizes are useful, as are activists who have imbibed Gene Sharp and Srdja Popovic's ideas into their actions.
It requires thoughtful creativity on behalf of non-profits, as the super rich, elite and powerful usually walk away from public problems through private provisioning. However this is one problem they do want to solve because it's forcing them to buy Dyson air purifiers and change homes for a season or become environmental migrants. The middle class is helpless and stuck with its daily routine of going to work and paying taxes and doesn't have time for environmental activism. The poor are already dying of many other things so air quality while important is like 8th on their priority list of "avoiding things that kill me". Community organizing around this issue must keep this reality in mind. School students becoming street-fighting scientific activists are where I pin a bulk of my hopes. And maybe a dharna unto death at the hotbed of air pollution in a field or urban city center a la GD Agarwal but with specific plans for implementation from each partner/stakeholder might be another realistic attempt at putting a glaring spotlight onto the problem. I will keep it in my bouquet of options as we relentlessly throw the kitchen sink at this problem over the next few years.
Sometimes the intervention point is non-obvious. One way, for example, to help would be to ensure mixed methods computational modelling to measure and act on stubble burning and air pollution in real time to bring together hyperspectral sensing from satellites, private satellite imagery data every hour from Planet Labs or Starlink, physical sensor maintenance and monitoring like Taiwan does with open APIs and hyperlocal modeling using Streetview cameras/CCTV cameras/private sensor networks. This could be a singularly useful initiative but is usually left to universities and private markets. However, university professors find it hard to receive grants to work on knowledge implementation since they're involved in its creation or dissemination. Companies find it hard to invent something on venture money that usually requires decades of public good funding. Thus, it is a perfect spot of the non-profit to play a bridge through ideas and institutions similar to the GovLab or data collectives or G0V or Pol.is.
There also needs to be a better understanding of farmer lives and incentive structures. Many are poor landless labourers and marginal farmers who have suffered successive bad governments, failing education systems, unemployment and falling incomes. Many policymakers or researchers fail to incorporate the difficult risky experience that being a farmer is in India. So, any measures to be implemented upon them, must be rigorously checked by all other stakeholders especially grassroot non-profits. Flagging mistakes to companies and governments should be the responsibility of altruistic stewards.
Fifth, media and social media. Air pollution and agriculture both have low intellectual capacity in the sectors and their journalism. Solution-oriented comprehensive reporting has been missing. The rise of the mobile phone and cellular data have made multiple outlets for truth, information, knowledge and communication.
The government must use multi-modal communication with citizens and industries to both information and educate but also improve their own services and regulations. Similarly, there can be consistency in messaging and information across different stakeholders in for-profits and non-profits coordinated by academia to help double down and hammer home pointers that are important. When a newspaper advertisement, TV ad, billboard, bus stand hoarding, Youtube short, Instagram reel and Whatsapp status all align, the effects shall be supralinear. The Malaria, Chikungunya and Dengue campaign in Delhi from 2016-17 is one such recent localized public health campaign that can be learnt from and replicated.
Media can scale its work through two novel means of production: technology and creativity. Nothing stops a media house or digital platform from being a repository of high-quality government information, public knowledge and being a public problem solver. Their stories can have dynamic information, spatial information and specifics of technology and commerce when reporting on solutions to compare and contrast options. Similarly, using media and social media with creativity can allow new voices to emerge. A Bigg Boss episode around air pollution or stubble burning which is well planned and scripted might help the problem a lot more than stale stenography. Providing prestige to scientists a la Neal Stephenson novels, respect and reward to community workers and problem solvers and connecting fame and name with those in the trenches of the game shall be appreciated and create a pro-social environment for pollution abatement. IEC activities that use AI Sidhu Moosewala, Raginis and Karan Johar film tunes can be an innovation in this attention deficit generation. A Filmfare or IIFA Award level show with rewards and prizes for public intellectuals and social workers could be an interesting tipping point.
Most actors or stakeholders looking to solve the problem are uncoordinated and disconnected from each other. The state doesn't listen to the academic, the company doesn't work with civil society, media doesn't present solutions and social media exacerbates symptoms. It's also gotten heavily politicized as an issue and doesn't seem to have any straight answers so no politican or policy maker wants to touch it with a 10 foot pole and wants to continuously punt it to the future. Thus, much like the 1DaySooner story with Nick Bostrom, all it needs is for the wrong thing to become unacceptable is rebellion by one, intolerance by a few, collaboration by many and scale by everyone.
Air pollution and stubble burning is not ok.
I will not accept it and will work towards its elimination, eradication and end.
I will put the kitchen sink towards it with the earnestness of a Major Kuldeep from Border, and will hope to see you soon, o reader of this article, Wing Commander Andy Bajwa!
It is my hope that all air pollution problem solvers can say, feel and do work with the axiom "Hum hi hum hain to kya hum hain, tum hi tum ho toh kya tum ho!"
For India, we will take this faceless enemy of air pollution down, but with truth, love and non-violence 😄
Roshan Shankar is Founder and CEO of Saroja.Earth. He has been to Princeton, Stanford, NSUT, DPS RK Puram, APJ Sheikh Sarai for knowledge and education, and worked with the William J Perry Project, RAND Corporation, Delhi Government, OML, AIB, Tagbag, Newspost, Memesys Culture Lab, Goombira Tea and Popvax.